Sunday, November 22, 2009

Costa Rica 1

I arrived Saturday night in Costa Rica, where I'll be spending a week on a research trip with a group of classmates. I'll have plenty of political analysis to share, I'm sure. But so far, all I've done is a bit of white water rafting and a lot of eating. So I'm cross-posting here from my food blog, Pipón. Buen provecho!

Source: Pipón

My wife, a biologist who has spent time in Costa Rica, warned me that every día it's the same plato del día, typically gallo pinto, or black beans and rice.


After one day here, it seems she is on to something. Breakfast by the Río Sarapiquí: following a glass of chilled, fresh fruit juice and a selection of papaya and watermelon, a plate of gallo pinto accompanied by roasted plantains and scrambled eggs.


Lunch, at the Pozo Azul restaurant: a buffet featuring red beans, rice, steak and chicken.


Dinner, in an outdoor mall in downtown San José: casado, essentially a kicked-up version of gallo pinto, paired with steak, fried egg, roasted plantains (maduros) and a small salad.

Thursday, November 19, 2009

Cu$a

My grandparents used to love to tell stories about their last trip to Havana, where they played slots at an empty casino as Fidel Castro fought his way down the Sierra Maestra. Now (though the Communist dictatorship that replaced the Batista dictatorship still rules), debate is raging anew in Congress over allowing travel to Cuba. Lately, it has appeared that memories of the onetime Caribbean playground and marketplace are beginning to drown out the human rights issues again. To put it another, it seems that gradually, it is our pocketbooks, not Cuban-Americans in Florida, that are waging the dog.

"The travel site Orbitz has collected over 100,000 signatures on a petition to eliminate the ban," The Washington Post reports. "Worried about the split in the Democratic caucus, some lawmakers are now looking to a bipartisan bill being drafted by Agriculture Committee Chairman Collin C. Peterson (D-Minn.) and others that could pick up extra votes by both abolishing the travel restrictions and reducing barriers for U.S. farm exports to Cuba."

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Searching for 'unión' in Unasur

Though largely free of shooting wars, South America has never been a model of regional integration. But lately, it has become downright silly to speak seriously about the goals of Unasur. Peru recently arrested an air force officer for allegedly passing secrets to Chile, an accusation Chilean President Michelle Bachelet dismissed as "offensive and pompous," the BBC reports. Meanwhile, Venezuela has ordered 15,000 troops to the Colombian border, with President Hugo Chávez, a former army officer, threatening "100 years of war."

Now it's likely that Chávez, a shrewd if brutish politician, is simply trying to distract domestic attention from the country's sluggish economy (third quarter economic output fell 4.5 percent, the second consecutive quarter of economic decline) and the fact that Chávez, who rose to power a decade ago as an anti-corruption, anti-partidocracia crusader, presides over the second-most corrupt country in Latin America (162 of 180) after Haiti, according to a new report from Transparency International. Also, to be fair, relations between Chile and Peru have been strained at least since the War of the Pacific in 1879.

Still, these two conflicts are occurring amid an alarming increase in military spending across South America, and they follow a decidedly inauspicious start for the Unión de Naciones Suramericanas, when Uruguay scuttled an attempt by former Argentine President Néstor Kirchner to lead the floundering organization.

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

McCain 2

My Small State post on Sen. John McCain's Nov. 9 speech about the U.S. role in the world prompted some interesting comments, both highly skeptical. [Read McCain's speech here.]
"North Americans are just beginning to wake up and smell the hypocrisy," one reader said. "The U.S. has zero credibility outside of its own hypnotized borders."
"We can claim to fight for human rights and suppression of freedom," another reader argued, summing up the U.S. position, "yet it is completely ok to be pally with certain PEOPLE, as if they can be separated from their role in the actions of states."
I'm not surprised by those responses. After all, I acknowledged in my post that America's human rights record and contradictory policies have proved "downright debilitating" at times to efforts to promote a human rights agenda. Still, if you care about human rights, there is one simple reason not to dismiss the U.S. effort: there are no other major powers, and very few minor ones, that consistently push these issues.

The most obvious example is China, where the foreign policy is often generously described as "pragmatic," but should be better characterized as "amoral." Sure, its "no political strings" (other than pressure to isolate democratic Taiwan) approach to trade is popular with the thugs that rule in Sudan and in other less-than-democratic, commodity-exporting states. But that's cold comfort to political prisoners and abused minorities. The situation is similar in Brazil, an emerging power that aspires to a role in global environmental issues, but has had disappointingly little to say on human rights concerns.

As McCain pointed out in his speech, on the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. (and this goes for even the most progressive sovereign states) "is not an NGO." Contradictions are inevitable. The other day, after hearing Tulane Prof. Ludovico Feoli describe Costa Rica's success in setting aside 26 percent of its territory for conservation and generating 96 percent of its electricity from renewable sources, I asked whether China's appalling treatment of its environment would discourage Costa Rica from approving a Free Trade Agreement with the People's Republic of Chevron (the name I sometimes use to explain China's global strategy). Environmental concerns, he replied, are not that "entrenched."

Monday, November 16, 2009

Duel Loyalties

I've tried to stay publicly neutral about the Uruguay-Costa Rica World Cup qualifying games. After all, though I spent 2008 in Uruguay doing Fulbright research, I'm leading a research trip to Costa Rica this month. So I thought it'd be best not to choose sides. But I was dismayed to read in the Uruguayan press, following Uruguay's 1-0 victory on Saturday in San Jose, that Costa Rica had flubbed some of the diplomatic protocol apparently associated with soccer matches. "La delegación celeste," Montevideo Portal reports, "no fue recibida por los dirigentes de Costa Rica." It gets worse. "En el vestuario uruguayo, había cuatro duchas, dos inodoros y los dirigentes compraron una piscina inflable para recuperar a los jugadores."

So I now feel emboldened to admit that I'm cheering for Uruguay in the rematch, scheduled to be held in Montevideo on Wednesday. Uruguay's national soccer squad could sure use a chance at redemption. Uruguay hosted, and won, the first World Cup in 1930, and it finished first again in 1950. But it has been more or less downhill since then, and not making it to South Africa would have been a tough pill to swallow for Uruguayan soccer fans.

Meanwhile, I'd hate to see any lasting tensions develop between Uruguay and Costa Rica, and not only because of my duel loyalties. Though they're geographically distant and culturally distinct, the two countries find themselves frequently grouped on lists of Latin American model states, famous for their stable democratic politics, high literacy rates and relatively equal income distribution. If Costa Rica becomes a dirty word in Uruguay (or dirty words, as the case may be), Uruguayans would have to go back to comparing their country to New Zealand, a far, far more random statistical doppelganger.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

McCain: U.S. should not 'muzzle our criticisms'

The tainted historical legacy and unending contradictions of U.S. policy have long discouraged Americans from debating human rights issues abroad and proved downright debilitating for U.S. diplomats. Even after we moved past our ugly treatment of blacks and Native Americans, our conduct in the developing world, including a warm embrace of so-called "friendly tyrants," has undermined attempts to promote responsible governance.

That is why Sen. John McCain's speech on Monday, delivered at SAIS on the 20th anniversary of the toppling of the Berlin Wall, was so powerful. McCain is a relatively conservative Republican and a war hero. He is hardly a jingoist or blindly patriotic, however, so I listened closely when he said he believes the U.S. should promote abroad the democratic and human rights values at "the core of our national creed," ideas we have long preached and too often failed to embody. The U.S., McCain said, retains a "moral power" to satisfy the "universal appeal of human rights."

Coming from most politicians, McCain's words might sound stale or even ironic. But McCain also frontally addressed the difficulty of advancing this cause. George W. Bush's co-opting of the language of democracy and human rights (not to mention his treatment of prisoners in Iraq and Guantanamo Bay) has made them "dirty words" for many Americans, McCain suggested. Meanwhile, a realization of American "fallibility" has persuaded many at home and abroad that the U.S. lacks the credibility to fight for this cause. Moreover, McCain said, human rights will "never be our only priority." "The United States," he said, "is not an NGO."

Still, for moral and realpolitik motives alike, the U.S. should not abandon its effort to promote human rights and democracy, McCain said. It is "false," he argued, that we cannot maintain alliances with countries whose human rights records we criticize; and it is illogical to ignore the way governments treat their citizens because leaders who abuse their own people are more likely to disturb international peace. "The character of states cannot be separated from their conduct," he said.

Both good points, though I wonder if McCain, had he been elected president in 2008, would have felt as free not to "muzzle" his criticism of Russia and stalwart U.S. allies such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia, who he included on his list of the "darker corners of our world" alongside the more traditional villains, Iran, North Korea, Burma, Zimbabwe, Cuba and Sudan. I'm also skeptical that he would have spoken as forcefully about his vision of a world where the odious dictators that tyrannize these lands would not only be reformed, but removed. Speaking of pro-democracy protesters in Iran and elsewhere, he said bluntly (and provocatively, given our recent history with regime change operations) that the U.S. should not "condemn them to suffer forever," or accept to "coexist eternally" with rogue regimes. "We deal with states like these because we have to, not because we like to," he said.

But McCain is not president, and so he spoke candidly and movingly. I had approached his address skeptically, having accepted the school of thought described in a New Republic story, "Bushed," published a year ago by Rutgers Prof. David Greenberg. Writing to Prof. Greenberg at the time, a month before President Obama's election, I said,
"I've long believed that one of the saddest results of the Iraq war disaster was the death of idealism among American liberals and the loss of any appetite for even the most benign types of U.S. foreign engagement, let alone the brand of aggressive humanitarian intervention that helped protect Kosovo's Albanians and may very well have had the potential to save millions of Rwandans and Sudanese."

"A new Jimmy Carter would have trouble even pronouncing the word 'democracy' without prompting boos and laughter from what should be natural allies in the American liberal community."
McCain is considerably more optimistic and a good deal less cynical. Perhaps I should be, too. Advancing the "cause of human rights and dignity," he said at SAIS, puts us "on the right side of history." At the same time, abusive governments are "rotting inside," with "only have fear and force to sustain them."

U.S. foreign policy priorities

Curious about U.S. foreign policy priorities? Here's one clue, the languages included in the U.S. Department of State's Critical Language Scholarship Program: Arabic, Persian, Azerbaijani, Bangla/Bengali, Hindi, Indonesian, Korean, Punjabi, Turkish, Urdu, Chinese, Japanese, Russian. The program, which lasts for about two months, "is part of a U.S. government interagency effort to expand dramatically the number of Americans studying and mastering critical need foreign languages."

Monday, November 9, 2009

'Rudo y Cursi'

I was born in New York City, and even though we later moved to the suburbs, the competition on the court still proved tough enough that I had given up my hoop dreams by the eighth grade. So you might think I had trouble relating to "Rudo" and "Cursi," the eponymous brothers at the center of Rudo y Cursi, the 2008 Mexican film starring Gael García Bernal and a foxy actress, Adriana Paz, who (spoiler alert) is not content to simply show off her navel. Raised in a rural, coastal town dominated by the banana business, the brothers, who have never set foot in the Distrito Federal, are still hanging on to the idea of playing professional soccer well past their athletic primes. (Read reviews on Rotten Tomatoes.)



But watching the movie tonight, despite its tragicomic trajectory, I found I could easily connect to the relationship of the two brothers. I also got a great glimpse of Mexican life, from the grueling banana business and the sway of rural drug kingpins, to urban corruption and soccer fanaticism. Over all, the movie fails to balance over-the-top, country-boy-in-the-big-city spectacle with recurring hints about poverty and gambling addiction. At its worst, it feels like a Spanish language, big-budget VH1 "Behind the Music" documentary. Still, I recommend it for sure, if only because, as the sports car-driving soccer recruiter likes to say of Mexico City, "Even a monster has its charms."

Lugo and the Paraguayan press

Borrowed from my Facebook "news feed," from former Fulbright scholar Gustavo Setrini:

An example of either how deluded or how fear-mongering the paraguayan press is.

Source: www.abc.com.py
El ministro del Interior, Rafael Filizzola, afirmó que los cambios militares dispuestos por el presidente Lugo caen dentro de la facultad privativa del mismo en su carácter de Comandante en Jefe, y del principio de subordinación de los militares al poder civil. ...
Today at 11:50am · · · Share

Sunday, November 8, 2009

'Ataque de Pánico'

And they say nothing exciting ever happens in Montevideo.

Small State guest-blogger Todd Martinez let me know about a new Uruguayan short film, Ataque de Pánico, that shows so much activity going on in Montevideo that the somewhat sleepy Uruguayan capital, as George Clinton might say, is literally tearing the roof off the sucker. You see, robots are marauding along La Rambla, crumbling the pavement by the industrial ANCAP refinery, towering over the uber-modern Torre de ANTEL (before firebombing it), casting shadows on the historic Palacio Legislativo (then rocketing it, sending women and children fleeing), toppling the Palacio Salvo, once the tallest building in South America, as spaceships swoop over the José Artigas monument in the Plaza Independencia, then targeting city hall before igniting an apocalyptic conflagration that consumes the entire city, pointedly engulfing the obelisco before the screen goes black.



I'm not sure of the filmmakers' message. The destruction of the congress evokes the September 11, 1973 bombing of La Moneda, the Chilean presidential palace, while the images of planes knocking down high-rises evokes Sept. 11, 2001. The ANTEL tower is anathema to many Uruguayan architects, so they probably get a kick out of its demise, just as secular Uruguayan audiences no doubt cheer the upending of the infamous cross erected after the 1987 visit by Pope John Paul II. For me, the strongest message is the recognition of the city's historic and architectural charm, too often overshadowed by nearby Buenos Aires, but harder to take for granted as it burns and explodes before your eyes.

Saturday, November 7, 2009

Honduras, dealbreaker

I guess this is how the Honduran crisis traps you. If you decide to write about it, be prepared to return to the subject daily, as every sunrise brings a new twist to the 132-day-old drama. Just as I and many analysts were congratulating U.S. diplomats for securing a very brief, highly symbolic return to office for the ousted president, Manuel Zelaya, Zelaya said he saw little unity in the "national unity government" and declared the agreement "dead."

In a sense, it's plausible to have a "national unity government" without Zelaya's imprimatur, considering that the Congress, military and Supreme Court all oppose Zelaya. But it's also useless, and it does little to quell the anger among Zelaya's impoverished supporters. (That's not a small group. Honduras is the second poorest country in Central America, after Nicaragua, and even the forever-cheerleading Lonely Planet is warning backpackers that "the security situation in Honduras remains fragile.") The failure of the agreement also undermines the efforts by the State Department to demonstrate that the U.S. is capable of intervening in the region to reverse coups, not just to organize them.

The U.S. had won major plaudits for browbeating interim-President Roberto Micheletti to agree to Zelaya's reinstatement, a long-delayed push that only required "the slightest American muscle-flexing," as Upside Down World put it. But the U.S. seems to have untwisted its own arm-twisting. Asked if the U.S. would recognize the upcoming Honduran presidential election regardless of whether Zelaya returns to office, Thomas Shannon, the much-heralded diplomat behind the accord, famously told CNN en Español, "si, exactamente." "What's clear now," Central America blogger David Holiday commented afterward, "is that this wasn't the great deal it was hyped up to be, rather, it was a high-stakes poker game, and Zelaya got snookered."

All along, Micheletti supporters have seen the election, scheduled for Nov. 29, as "the best way out of the impasse," expecting that after a free and fair vote, "the united front against the coup in the outside world may buckle," The Economist says. Though the VOA reports that the "United States Friday expressed disappointment" with the collapse of the U.S.-brokered deal, it seems to me that U.S. diplomats have lost their leverage. That's trouble not just for Zelaya, whose destabilizing, constitutionally questionable leadership is increasingly being forgotten as he plays the role of the defrauded and politically martyred democratic. Vulnerable leaders across the continent have slept less soundly since the coup. Earlier this month, Fernando Lugo, the Paraguayan president, fired the leaders of the army, navy and air force "amid speculation of a possible coup," The New York Times reported. For Lugo, the image of Zelaya spending week after week holed up in the Brazilian embassy cannot be comforting.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Ex presidents offer 'Social Agenda for Democracy in Latin America'

The idea of tying anti-poverty measures to democratization in Latin America is relatively new, and it's an important concept that is gaining acceptance in the post-Washington Consensus era. That said, having heard former Peruvian President Alejandro Teledo make a pitch for greater economic equity in the hemisphere in September, I knew the general outlines of the "Social Agenda for Democracy in Latin America" that he was presenting on Tuesday, and so I opted to spend the afternoon studying the impacts of government spending on interest rates and national saving rather than stroll across Massachusetts Avenue to meet six former Latin American presidents. Not my smartest decision.

Fortunately, my classmate, Nicole Firment, formerly of the Organization of American States, had the good sense to attend the forum, co-sponsored by SAIS, Brookings, the Inter-American Dialogue and a handful of other organizations (it's not easy to round up so many former leaders). Here's what she thought of the presentation:

The draft of the Social Agenda for Democracy in Latin America opens by acknowledging the failures of both the Washington Consensus and the increasingly prevalent authoritarian populism (an indirect reference to the policies of Hugo Chávez) in providing equitable and sustainable economic growth. It then presents a very ambitious list of 16 policy areas related to reducing poverty, increasing political participation and promoting sustainable development. These initiatives range from implementing fiscal reform to increasing conditional cash transfers to the poor, from expanding access to microfinance to facilitating increased remittances.

Although there is no clear plan of action on implementation, Toledo insisted that his priority was to achieve a consensus among leaders in the region on how to tackle the problems of poverty and inequality. On the philosophical issues, there is already broad agreement. But questions posed to the former heads of state -- Toledo, Nicolas Ardito Barletta (Panama), Vinicio Cerezo (Guatemala), Vicente Fox (Mexico), Ricardo Maduro (Honduras) and Carlos Mesa (Bolivia) -- made it clear that controversy still surrounds many of the key antipoverty topics.

Asked about drug-trafficking, for example, an issue mostly overlooked in the "Social Agenda," Fox quickly pointed out the need for the U.S. to reduce consumption, money laundering and arms sales to Mexican warlords. Legalization should also be considered, Fox said, before criticizing his successor's use of Mexican soldiers in the terrifyingly violent internal drug war. In Bolivia, Mesa said, the president is also losing the war on drugs. Under Evo Morales, coca production is way up, a trend that the recent expulsion of DEA agents is hardly helping.

It's perhaps not surprising that former leaders had some unkind words for their replacements, particularly when they represent opposing parties. But the fact that the presidents were replaced in mostly clean transitions reveals the growing strength of their democratic institutions. One would hope that even though this agenda lacks the teeth needed to implement its ambitious policies, the continued involvement of former political leaders will serve to enhance policy dialogue in the region.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

'Muchos ejércitos, pocas guerras'

I've been thinking about the Latin American carrera armamentista since Uruguayan President Tabaré Vázquez, in a visit to Washington in September, criticized his fellow Latin American leaders for wasteful military spending. Outside of a few bitter rivalries (such as the Hugo Chávez-Álvaro Uribe fued), that kind of broad critique from a political leader is about as rare as a Hollywood starlet dumping on a movie at its premiere. (When I asked former Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo about the same issue later that month, he also criticized the arms purchases, but Toledo actually lives in D.C. these days, and for now at least, he is out of politics.)

Last week, I heard a former Latin American defense minister speak, and though he downplayed the possibility of military conflict in the region, he said the spike in spending had helped advance the cause of better regional coordination among militaries. Now, as Hemispheric Brief reported on Tuesday, that coordination appears to have begun. The BBC says "los comandantes de los ejércitos de 15 países del continente americano" met in Buenos Aires late in October, where they insisted that the ramped-up military capacities would be critical because of "el importante papel que juegan las fuerzas armadas para ayudar en casos de desastre natural y para mantener la paz en zonas en conflicto."

I hope they're right. Historically, when Latin American militaries have been strong, they have too often left the barracks to topple democratic governments. When they have coordinated, moreover, it has been to help one another repress dissent and preserve authoritarian regimes. No one would object to seeing members of a Latin American army assisting after a hurricane or earthquake, and everyone is proud of the generous contributions of countries like Uruguay to U.N. peacekeeping missions. But it's hard to see why so many tanks, guns and fighter planes are needed to "ayudar en casos de desastre" or "mantener la paz."

Monday, November 2, 2009

Fears of Latin America 'bubble'

These incorrigible worrywarts. The International Monetary Fund is warning that Latin American countries performed so well in the face of the global financial crisis that "rapidly appreciating currencies and an influx of foreign capital... could raise the specter of future bubbles," The Financial Times reported. "The direction of the wind changes so fast that we are beginning to get a bit concerned about things getting too good for these countries," Nicholas Eyzaguirre, the IMF's western hemisphere director, said. And here I thought I was the naysayer, harping on the region's reliance on natural resources and commodities and warning that the rapid growth in places like Brazil and Peru is not sustainable without a bit more diversifying of economic activity.

I'm sure Eyzaguirre has a point. But there are darker clouds to point out if we're worried about too much optimism in the region. Here's just one example: The Miami Herald reported recently about the "arms race" in Latin America that has seen weapons purchases nearly double in the past five years, from $24 billion in 2003 to $47 billion last year. The biggest culprits are Brazil, Venezuela, Chile and Colombia, though Peru is in on the shopping spree, buying navy frigates, and Ecuador is in the market for jets, helicopters and surveillance drones. Only Colombia, still battling guerrillas in its lawless jungles, has a clear need for a strong military.

Endless Honduran crisis nears end

I haven't blogged a lot on the Honduran crisis mostly because, despite the ugly symbolism of another coup in Latin America, the controversy does not really have serious implications for the region. That said, the apparent resolution is a welcome development. The BBC reports that the Honduran congress is mulling a deal that would "create a power-sharing government and require the bitter political rivals to recognize the result of November's presidential poll." The agreement is widely seen as a success for U.S. diplomats, who have been threatening not to recognize the upcoming elections if they were overseen by the de facto regime while the ousted president languished in the Brazilian embassy. Interim President Roberto Micheletti, The Financial Times reported, "bowed to U.S. pressure" following a visit by Thomas Shannon, assistant secretary of state for Western Hemispheric affairs, that The Wall Street Journal described as "arm-twisting by Washington."

It's not entirely clear Manuel Zelaya will reclaim his office. Mary Anastasia O'Grady, arguably a bigger critic of Zelaya than even the soldiers who kidnapped him in June, predicted Sunday that leaving the issue to Honduran lawmakers means "it is quite likely that Mr. Zelaya will be refused the presidency once more." "The need to dictate to Hondurans how to run their country has been the problem from the start," O'Grady wrote. "Mr. Chávez and Fidel Castro were supporting Mr. Zelaya, and Mr. Obama apparently wanted to be part of the gang."

Most analysts, and practically all Latin American leaders, see it differently. Regional power brokers have been pressing Obama to become more involved from the start. It is a rare moment (I mean like Haley's comet rare) when U.S. policymakers and this generation of Latin American leaders actually agree on an issue and U.S. involvement is not only accepted, but urged. It seems President Obama has begun making the best of that situation, whether or not Honduran lawmakers see fit to keep Zelaya bunking with the Brazilian ambassador for the next 20 years.

Sunday, November 1, 2009

Pol. parties in Peru, 'corruption and sleaze'

For readers who do not follow Small State on Twitter, here are a few recent, new-agey, short-attention-span, more-than-stream-of-consciousness but less-than-deeply-considered "Tweets" that might be of interest.
Why isn't Toledo, Peru's former prez, a Mass. Ave. celebrity? For one, the party he founded is known for "corruption and sleaze" (Crabtree). 4 minutes ago from web
Unconvinced insecurity erodes support for democracy? Fujimori's popularity jumped to 81% from 53% after he closed congress in 1992. 5:46 PM Oct 28th from TweetDeck
Just saw Chilean amb. speak. Much love for UNASUR. 1:21 PM Oct 28th from TweetDeck
"Caiu na rede é peixe" ("if it falls in the net, it's a fish") Brazilians like to say. 9:06 AM Oct 28th from web
Brazil on the rise? WP reports # of slums at 1,000, where as many as 3 million Cariocas live and about 5,000 killings occured last year. 10:04 AM Oct 27th from web
Hard to imagine a worse fate than Chávez, but did you know the "caracazo" bus fare riots in 1989 left nearly 1,000 dead (K. Roberts)? 12:04 AM Oct 23rd from web
''Pinto or black?'' is the new ''paper or plastic?'' 11:57 AM Oct 21st from TweetDeck
Intrigued? You can follow Small State in uber-brief at http://twitter.com/benjamingedan. I "Tweet" about new Small State posts and other topics hemispheric and otherwise. Enjoy the itty-bitty, itsy-bitsy, teeny-weeny, tiny URLs.